A collaboration of Archimedes Center and the INSS Institute for National Security Studies, led by the INSS. Other collaborators in the project: Yesodot Institute for public policy and practical Zionism; Gazit Institute - an extension of the Research and Analysis Division of Israel Defense Intelligence for advanced, applied, data-driven studies; and the Israel Democracy Institute.

In recent years, global supply chains have been under increasing challenge, which was manifested, among other things, during the Corona epidemic and with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. These are added to the challenges arising from long-term geopolitical changes, including de-globalization processes as a result of tensions between the superpowers and global competition for resources (with an emphasis on critical minerals for advanced industries). Combining the fundamental challenges of the global supply chains with the climate challenge may create a "perfect storm" that will lead to instability and damage to national security, especially in countries like Israel, which depend to a greater extent on the global supply chains, which are particularly exposed to the consequences of climate change and which face additional significant challenges to their national resilience.

Climate change is already having a significant impact on the global supply chain, especially for countries that heavily rely on imports of raw materials and products. The longer and more complex the supply chain, the more exposed these countries are to disruptions and shortages (IPCC 2023). In 2021, abnormal rainfall caused flooding in central China, affecting the ability to supply goods such as coal, pigs and peanuts, and forcing the closure of a Nissan car plant. A month later, Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf of Mexico and damaged essential industrial facilities that produce a variety of products, including plastics and pharmaceuticals, and forced the diversion of trucks carrying goods from their routes.

In 2022, unprecedented heat waves hit England and caused the runway at Luton Airport to melt and shut down, and railways across the country were damaged by overheating and shut down as well. In addition, that year, the severe drought in Europe left the water levels of parts of the Rhine and Danube too low for ships to pass through, thus hurting trade (Leslie 2022).

Disruptions in the supply chains and national security of the State of Israel

The existence of the State of Israel largely depends on its ability to import raw materials and products by sea. Most of the supply chains it relies on are long and this due to Israel's complex relations with its neighbors. Israel, in fact, depends on maritime trade for its existence. The Israeli economy is characterized by a high rate of international trade from the GDP - over 50%, and the bulk of this trade is seaborne, where 98% of Israeli foreign trade in terms of weight and 65% in monetary terms is carried via the sea. It is understandable that ports and open lanes (Communication of Lines Sea: SLOC) are a strategic necessity for Israel's maritime trade in routine and in emergency situations (Gonen 2022).

Disruptions in supply chains can lead to a shortage of raw materials in Israeli industry, which are essential, among other things, for advanced production in the defense industry and the Greentech industry, for energy production and food security. Israel's national security may also be harmed, as supply disruptions will reverberate throughout the Middle East and affect the ability of most of Israel's neighboring countries to meet the needs of their citizens and residents and maintain stability.

Project goals

Building a working model for predicting expected disruptions to supply chains critical to Israel's national security.

Forming insights and strategic recommendations to improve Israel's supply chains.

Development of an innovative visual tool that will illustrate the potential risks to national security arising from disruptions in the supply chain, which will allow decision makers to make informed choices.

Phase I Broad and in-depth analysis of past supply chain disruptions

Phase II Disruptions in supply chains and the national security of the State of Israel - the food sector

Phase III A model for predicting possible future scenarios

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